Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 0.014761 0.016696 0.018805 0.021278 0.024100 0.027224 0.030951
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 0.011892 0.014568 0.017741 0.021792 0.026844 0.032959 0.040955
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 0.010015 0.012929 0.016582 0.021519 0.028053 0.036455 0.048156
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.008715 0.011739 0.015704 0.021320 0.029126 0.039680 0.055172
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.007731 0.010800 0.014982 0.021149 0.030095 0.042730 0.062156
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.007156 0.010332 0.014814 0.021670 0.032012 0.047219 0.071624
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.006475 0.009624 0.014210 0.021458 0.032777 0.050035 0.078823
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.006133 0.009372 0.014231 0.022155 0.034954 0.055162 0.090164
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.005505 0.008617 0.013408 0.021439 0.034799 0.056553 0.095507
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.005042 0.008076 0.012862 0.021097 0.035187 0.058820 0.102518
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.004547 0.007436 0.012097 0.020311 0.034734 0.059592 0.106940
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.004393 0.007341 0.012213 0.021017 0.036904 0.065087 0.120491
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.004208 0.007187 0.012226 0.021563 0.038879 0.070502 0.134678
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.004028 0.007025 0.012211 0.022059 0.040817 0.076059 0.149858
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.003746 0.006658 0.011800 0.021784 0.041266 0.078828 0.159765
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.003503 0.006339 0.011449 0.021582 0.041827 0.081849 0.170529
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.003286 0.006052 0.011130 0.021409 0.042419 0.084977 0.181873
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.003178 0.005960 0.011167 0.021937 0.044473 0.091297 0.200972
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.002988 0.005695 0.010851 0.021721 0.044958 0.094357 0.213089
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.002919 0.005660 0.010979 0.022428 0.047465 0.102024 0.236858
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.002699 0.005307 0.010448 0.021703 0.046785 0.102575 0.243683
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.002536 0.005058 0.010109 0.021356 0.046906 0.104934 0.255214
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.002341 0.004730 0.009583 0.020560 0.045933 0.104665 0.260092